Modeling Detection of HIV in Cuba
نویسندگان
چکیده
A nonlinear compartmental model is developed for the HIV detection system in Cuba with different types of detections, some random and others non-random. We analyze the dynamics of this system, compute the reproduction numbers, and use the data from the Cuban HIV/AIDS epidemic between 1986-2008 to fit the model. We obtain estimates for the detection-related parameters during two separate time periods to reflect the timeline of the implementation of various types of searches. The reproduction numbers for each time period are also computed from the sets of values of the parameters. We found that random screening is most important as a mean of surveillance. Moreover, local asymptotic stability for the Disease Free Equilibrium can be achieved if (i) random screening is sufficiently effective and (ii) infection by detected HIV-positive individuals is minimal. Our results highlight the importance of education for the known infectious for the purpose of preventing further infection. Fitting the 1986-2008 HIV data to obtain the model parameter estimates indicates that the HIV epidemic in Cuba is currently approaching an endemic equilibrium.
منابع مشابه
A Class of Methods for HIV Contact Tracing in Cuba: Implications for Intervention and Treatment
A class of four linear and nonlinear differential equations models is given to describe the detection of HIV-positive individuals in Cuba through random screening and contact tracing. The basic reproduction number is obtained for each of the four models. Cuban HIV data from 1986 to 2002 are used to fit the models for the purpose of comparison. We also use the models to gauge the difference in d...
متن کاملEpidemiology of Hiv/aids in Cuba,1986-2008: Modeling Changes in Detection with Temporally Varying Parameters
Background HIV/AIDS prevalence in Cuba has remained consistently the lowest in the Caribbean region. The Cuban HIV/AIDS program features a detection system which has experienced many changes over the years, including the gradual discontinuation of sanatorial system in the 1990’s and increased detections through the family doctors after 2000. Methodology/Major Findings A nonlinear compartmental ...
متن کاملThe HIV/AIDS epidemic in Cuba: description and tentative explanation of its low HIV prevalence
BACKGROUND The Cuban HIV/AIDS epidemic has the lowest prevalence rate of the Caribbean region. The objective of this paper is to give an overview of the HIV/AIDS epidemic in Cuba and to explore the reasons for this low prevalence. METHODS Data were obtained from the Cuban HIV/AIDS programme established in 1983. This programme has an extensive adult HIV testing policy, including testing of all...
متن کاملHIV‑2 antibody detection after indeterminate or negative HIV‑1 Western blot in Cuba, 2005-2008.
INTRODUCTION Differentiating between HIV-1 and HIV-2 infection is the first step to understanding HIV transmission, epidemiology and pathogenesis in geographical areas where both viruses circulate. In Cuba, positive results in mixed HIV-1/2 screening assays are confirmed by HIV-1 Western blot. Indeterminate results constitute the main limitation of this test and HIV-2 infection is among their p...
متن کاملذخیره در منابع من
با ذخیره ی این منبع در منابع من، دسترسی به آن را برای استفاده های بعدی آسان تر کنید
عنوان ژورنال:
دوره شماره
صفحات -
تاریخ انتشار 2011